Probabilistic weather pattern forecast for the 0000 UTC NCMRWF Unified Model medium range run on Sunday 19 March 2023

NCMRWF Unified Model medium range forecast from the 0000 UTC run on Sunday 19 March 2023
RESEARCH PROTOTYPE

Probabilitiy of each weather pattern occurring at 1200 UTC (1730 IST) on each day
(Probabilities in each column add up to 100%)

	Sun 19 Mar	Mon 20 Mar	Tue 21 Mar	Wed 22 Mar	Thu 23 Mar	Fri 24 Mar	Sat 25 Mar	Sun 26 Mar	Mon 27 Mar	Tue 28 Mar	Pattern Category	Historical frequency occurrences (February)	Historical frequency occurrences (March)	Historical frequency occurrences (April)
Pattern 1 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Retreating Monsoon	1.1%	0.6%	0.4%
Pattern 2 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Spring Dry Period	11.5%	5.5%	0.4%
Pattern 3 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Spring Dry Period	7.7%	3.1%	0.1%
Pattern 4 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Break Monsoon	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Pattern 5 (IMD \| ERA-I)		4%	100%	100%	83%		30%	13%	4%	26%	Western Disturbances	2.8%	12.4%	31.3%
Pattern 6 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Retreating Monsoon	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%
Pattern 7 (IMD \| ERA-I)							22%	48%	61%	35%	Spring Dry Period	14.9%	10.0%	5.6%
Pattern 8 (IMD \| ERA-I)							35%	26%	35%	30%	Spring Dry Period	14.0%	20.7%	4.1%
Pattern 9 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Spring Dry Period	7.0%	1.6%	0.0%
Pattern 10 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Active Monsoon	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Pattern 11 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Break Monsoon	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Pattern 12 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Pre-Monsoon	0.5%	5.6%	20.0%
Pattern 13 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Pre/Post-Monsoon	0.0%	0.0%	1.8%
Pattern 14 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Pre/Post-Monsoon	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Pattern 15 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Pre/Post-Monsoon	0.0%	0.2%	1.6%
Pattern 16 (IMD \| ERA-I)					4%	70%	9%	9%			Spring Dry Period	11.9%	16.0%	2.0%
Pattern 17 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Active Monsoon	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Pattern 18 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Active Bay of Bengal	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
Pattern 19 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Active Monsoon	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Pattern 20 (IMD \| ERA-I)							4%			9%	Spring Dry Period	11.6%	7.0%	0.9%
Pattern 21 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Active Monsoon	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Pattern 22 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Pre/Post-Monsoon	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%
Pattern 23 (IMD \| ERA-I)	96%	43%			13%	4%					Western Disturbances	4.0%	9.7%	14.2%
Pattern 24 (IMD \| ERA-I)	4%	52%									Western Disturbances	0.0%	1.1%	14.1%
Pattern 25 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Active Bay of Bengal	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%
Pattern 26 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Monsoon Onset	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Pattern 27 (IMD \| ERA-I)						26%		4%			Western Disturbances	12.5%	5.9%	1.3%
Pattern 28 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Active Bay of Bengal	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Pattern 29 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Retreating Monsoon	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Pattern 30 (IMD \| ERA-I)											Active Bay of Bengal	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Ensemble member pattern assignments (CSV file) | Ensemble member pattern distances (CSV file)

Cumulative probabilities for each weather pattern category at 1200 UTC (1730 IST) on each day
(Probabilities in each column add up to 100%)

	Sun 19 Mar	Mon 20 Mar	Tue 21 Mar	Wed 22 Mar	Thu 23 Mar	Fri 24 Mar	Sat 25 Mar	Sun 26 Mar	Mon 27 Mar	Tue 28 Mar
Pre-Monsoon
Pre/Post-Monsoon
Active Monsoon
Western Disturbances	100%	100%	100%	100%	96%	30%	30%	17%	4%	26%
Monsoon Onset
Spring Dry Period					4%	70%	70%	83%	96%	74%
Break Monsoon
Active Bay of Bengal
Retreating Monsoon

Weather patterns ordered according to their daily probabilities on each day
(Probabilities in each row add up to 100%)

Sun 19 Mar	Pattern 23 (96%) Western Disturbances	Pattern 24 (4%) Western Disturbances
Mon 20 Mar	Pattern 24 (52%) Western Disturbances	Pattern 23 (43%) Western Disturbances	Pattern 5 (4%) Western Disturbances
Tue 21 Mar	Pattern 5 (100%) Western Disturbances
Wed 22 Mar	Pattern 5 (100%) Western Disturbances
Thu 23 Mar	Pattern 5 (83%) Western Disturbances	Pattern 23 (13%) Western Disturbances	Pattern 16 (4%) Spring Dry Period
Fri 24 Mar	Pattern 16 (70%) Spring Dry Period	Pattern 27 (26%) Western Disturbances	Pattern 23 (4%) Western Disturbances
Sat 25 Mar	Pattern 8 (35%) Spring Dry Period	Pattern 5 (30%) Western Disturbances	Pattern 7 (22%) Spring Dry Period	Pattern 16 (9%) Spring Dry Period	Pattern 20 (4%) Spring Dry Period
Sun 26 Mar	Pattern 7 (48%) Spring Dry Period	Pattern 8 (26%) Spring Dry Period	Pattern 5 (13%) Western Disturbances	Pattern 16 (9%) Spring Dry Period	Pattern 27 (4%) Western Disturbances
Mon 27 Mar	Pattern 7 (61%) Spring Dry Period	Pattern 8 (35%) Spring Dry Period	Pattern 5 (4%) Western Disturbances
Tue 28 Mar	Pattern 7 (35%) Spring Dry Period	Pattern 8 (30%) Spring Dry Period	Pattern 5 (26%) Western Disturbances	Pattern 20 (9%) Spring Dry Period

Most likely weather patterns in map format

Information on the weather patterns

Historical weather pattern occurrences

Page created at 15:54:11 (IST local time) on Sunday 19 March 2023

NCMRWF Unified Model medium range forecast from the 0000 UTC run on Sunday 19 March 2023RESEARCH PROTOTYPE

Probabilitiy of each weather pattern occurring at 1200 UTC (1730 IST) on each day(Probabilities in each column add up to 100%)

Cumulative probabilities for each weather pattern category at 1200 UTC (1730 IST) on each day(Probabilities in each column add up to 100%)

Weather patterns ordered according to their daily probabilities on each day(Probabilities in each row add up to 100%)

Information on the weather patterns

NCMRWF Unified Model medium range forecast from the 0000 UTC run on Sunday 19 March 2023
RESEARCH PROTOTYPE

Probabilitiy of each weather pattern occurring at 1200 UTC (1730 IST) on each day
(Probabilities in each column add up to 100%)

Cumulative probabilities for each weather pattern category at 1200 UTC (1730 IST) on each day
(Probabilities in each column add up to 100%)

Weather patterns ordered according to their daily probabilities on each day
(Probabilities in each row add up to 100%)